Market Pulse: Spot Rates Hit New Lows on Transpacific Trade

Transpacific Rate Trends (Slack Season Intensifies)

The Transpacific (TP) trade has entered a sharp rate-decline cycle since November 1st. Weak demand and carriers’ hesitation to withdraw capacity continue to pressure prices:

Current Spot Rate Movements

• US West Coast (USWC):

  • Rates have plunged from $3,100/FEU → as low as $1,700/FEU this week.

• US East Coast (USEC):

  • Rates continue sliding to $2,400–2,500/FEU ex China/SEA base ports.

• Carrier Behavior:

  • Aggressively discounting to fill space

  • Prioritizing high-volume BCOs/NVOs

  • Blank sailings decreasing after Week 47 — fewer short-notice voids versus the last months

With vessels not being withdrawn, supply remains higher than seasonal demand, deepening the spot price decline.

China–U.S. Port Fee Suspension & Southeast Asia Shift

Effective November 10, China and the U.S. have agreed to suspend reciprocal port fees for 1 year.

Industry Impact

• More pricing predictability for carriers

• Easier capacity planning

• Supports continued volume shift into Southeast Asia

Market Share Shift (YTD)

• China volumes: ↓ 6.5%

• SEA origins: ↑ 23%

Carriers will increasingly redirect capacity to SEA in 2026 via:

• More direct services

• Additional port calls

• New express trade lanes

Vietnam is expected to be the main beneficiary, especially for e-commerce and high-tech manufacturing.

SE Asia Air Market Overview

The HKG → USA lane remains highly congested due to:

• E-commerce giants (Shein, PDD, TikTok Shop, GD) pushing massive volumes pre-Thanksgiving

• Weekly rate increases

• Limited space availability

Demand remains extremely strong and sustained.

Solar panel and Q4 e-commerce demand continues to drive tight capacity across Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia.

HASTH Project Update:

Our project shipments are 50% above forecast, with Vietnam and Thailand experiencing super peak conditions this quarter.

Major Developments of the Week

• FedEx Asia Pacific → Europe volumes up 76% YoY

  • Additional capacity expansion planned in 2026

• SF Express partners with Air One

  • Launching 4× weekly B747-400 freighters on UK–China route

• Etihad Cargo expands in Southeast Asia

  • New dedicated Cambodia freighter service